Predict, betting on a pool

In shortBet Over or Under on whether a pool earns more than a target before a deadline. The pool's own numbers settle the bet.

Outcome

over or under

Protocol fee

2% of each payout

Length

the creator's choice from contract 4.1.7

Settles

first claim after the end

A prediction market is a yes-or-no bet about one pool. The question is whether the pool's fee earnings will grow by more than a threshold before the market ends. Nobody has to judge the result: when the first person claims after the end time, the contract reads the pool's own numbers and settles.

Creating a market

1. Pick one of your own pools and the metric, fee earnings.
2. Set the threshold, the amount of growth that decides Over from Under. It counts the pool's fee earnings in token units on the chain's 8-decimal scale, both tokens added together. From contract 4.1.8 each token's fees count at face value, so 1 KCAL of fees adds 1. On older versions, fees in a token with more than 8 decimals count at a fraction of their value (KCAL 1/100, TAZ 1/10) and fees in one with fewer at a multiple, and a market created there keeps that basis until it settles.
3. Set how long it runs, in seconds, minutes, hours or days. From contract 4.1.7 a market can be any length you choose, though the admin may set a minimum, which the form shows under the field. Older versions require at least 1 hour. The length counts from the block your transaction lands in, so one right at the minimum, or only a few seconds long, is refused if signing takes longer; the form warns about that and still sends the length you typed.
4. Set the token people bet with and the minimum bet.
5. Launch. The market is open for bets immediately.

Betting and settling

• Anyone bets Over or Under with the bet token, at or above the minimum.
• After the end time, the first claim triggers resolution. Winners split the losing side's stake in proportion to what they put in.
• A 2 percent protocol fee comes out of each winner's whole payout, their own stake included. In a market with 1 SOUL on each side, the winner receives 1.96 SOUL: 2 percent of the payout, but 4 percent of the 1 SOUL won.
• If only one side was bet on, nobody wins: every bet is refunded in full, with no fee. The market then shows as refunded.
• Every amount of a market is in its own bet token, chosen by the creator. Each market card shows that token and its minimum bet.
• Fee earnings only ever go up, so the outcome cannot be pushed back down after the fact.
• For the same reason, from contract 4.1.7 betting closes as soon as the pool's fees have grown by the threshold: the outcome is decided, and a late bet would only be a bet on a known result. If both sides were bet on, Over wins. If one side is empty, nobody can win, so every bet is refunded in full after the end. Older versions accept bets until the end. Each card shows the growth so far, and a market that is already decided says so. It still settles on the first claim after its end time.